SHORT-TERM CYCLES IN PRIMARY COMMODITY PRICES

Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices

In this article, we develop a two-factor model of commodity prices that allows meanreversion in short-term prices and uncertainty in the equilibrium level to which prices revert. Although these two factors are not directly observable, they may be estimated from spot and futures prices. Intuitively, movements in prices for long-maturity futures contracts provide information about the equilibrium...

Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices: Incorporating A Stochastic Growth Rate

Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices

Competitive producers hold inventories to reduce costs of adjusting production and to reduce marketing costs by facilitating scheduling and avoiding stockouts. Using data for copper, heating oil, and lumber, I estimate these costs within a structural model of production, sales, and storage, and / study their implications for inventory and price behavior. Unlike earlier studies, this work focuse...

Inventories and the Short - Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices

I examine the behavior of inventories and their role in the short-run dynamics of commodity production and price. Competitive producers of a storable commodity react to price changes by balancing costs of changing production with costs of changing inventory holdings. To determine these costs, I estimate a structural model of production, sales, and storage for copper, heating oil, and lumber. I ...

Commodity Prices and Growth∗

In this paper we propose an endogenous growth model of commodity-rich economies in which: (i) long-run (steady-state) growth is endogenous and yet independent of commodity prices; (ii) commodity prices affect short-run growth through transitional dynamics; and (iii) the status of net commodity importer/exporter is endogenous. We argue that these predictions are consistent with historical eviden...